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Market Outlook

FII INVESTMENT 27 - JULY  2015

24th July 2015 – FII Activity details mentioned below. In the cash market today, FII’s bought 6 crores stock whereas DII’s bought 196 crores worth of stock. In the derivative market, FII’s sold 35 crore of Index futures and sold 782 crores worth of Index options. In the Stock futures segment, FII’s sold 321 crores worth of stock futures and sold 154 crores of stock options. In today’s session, FII’s have reduced their exposure in Index long futures (by 2 %) and their positions in Index shorts is reduced by 2 %. In options, FII’s have reduced positions in Index Call (long) by 0.6 % and positions in Index Put (long) is largely unchanged.

Today was a negative session in the market. Further consolidation continued in the market. Data since two days was negative and price was sluggish. Majority of indices have been low on momentum and are gradually moving down to test lower levels. Its still very early to take a call on what the outlook of market might be in August. While short term trend of data is negative, over long term data continues to be supportive. In another 4 sessions this series will end and one cannot say we have had a bearish series based on the past 2-3 sessions. For the series we are still flat to positive and drawing conclusions based on recent price action would not be right. At best one has to give more time for broader range resolution. Since the last 3 series, we are in a broad range of 17000 – 19000 on Bank Nifty and unless this range is broken decisively, odds of trending move will be limited. Similar to Bank Nifty, Nifty has been in a broader range as well. As it is in result season market rarely gives a trending move and with the current news flow and events lined up, some more consolidation wont necessarily be bad for the market. For Bank Nifty, short term reference level is 18730 whereas long term reference level is 18450 – 18500 (spot). A valid breakdown would come below 17000 and a valid breakout will come above 19000. Its a very broad range to work with, but unless a narrow range forms, positions will have to be less aggressive till range resolves. Expecting WRB on Monday.

Nifty EOD Charts

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